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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Sep 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 11-Sep 13 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 11-Sep 13 2024

Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13
00-03UT5.00 (G1)2.006.00 (G2)
03-06UT4.67 (G1)2.005.00 (G1)
06-09UT4.002.334.67 (G1)
09-12UT2.672.004.67 (G1)
12-15UT2.672.004.33
15-18UT2.333.003.67
18-21UT2.335.00 (G1)2.67
21-00UT1.675.33 (G1)1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 11 Sep due to arrival of a CME that left the sun on 08 Sep. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are also likely on 12-13 Sep due to the arrival of the 10 Sep CME.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 11-Sep 13 2024

Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13
S1 or greater50%50%20%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is currently below threshold, however there is a chance for further enhancement with the arrival of the 08 Sep CME by early on 11 Sep. By 13 Sep, a slight chance for elevated proton flux exists.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 10 2024 1547 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 11-Sep 13 2024

Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13
R1-R255%55%55%
R3 or greater15%15%15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 11-13 Sep.

Sun Images


eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304
 

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

 
SDO/HMI
Continuum		 SDO/HMI
Magnetogram		 LASCO C2 LASCO C3
 

The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.
 

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

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Solar cycle


Sunspot numbers F10.7CM Radio flux AP
 
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

 
Solar wind Satellite impact Xray flux
 
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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Auroral activity


Northern Auroral map Southern Auroral map
 

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie


Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.



Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).

links


Space Weather links:
Losts of interesting information
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Solar wind
Forecast discussion
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images


Space Agencies:
European Space Agency (ESA)
Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Russian Space Agency

Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).